Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.317154 2.456525 2.608309 2.787577 2.995854 3.233296 3.529236
2025-05-11 2.164755 2.340838 2.541546 2.791703 3.102103 3.485304 4.013963
2025-05-18 2.024665 2.215642 2.439525 2.728412 3.103271 3.593654 4.327147
2025-05-25 1.939170 2.143967 2.390006 2.717567 3.160881 3.775216 4.777836
2025-06-01 1.866000 2.079978 2.342176 2.700419 3.203149 3.937210 5.242722
2025-06-08 1.801487 2.021467 2.295437 2.678042 3.232168 4.080820 5.724107
2025-06-15 1.764857 1.994920 2.286680 2.704396 3.332240 4.352213 6.569052
2025-06-22 1.689585 1.914821 2.202319 2.617686 3.250710 4.302909 6.703268
2025-06-29 1.650785 1.879833 2.175723 2.610537 3.290939 4.474006 7.463569
2025-07-06 1.597767 1.823897 2.117815 2.553545 3.244957 4.477053 7.783692
2025-07-13 1.582271 1.816411 2.125113 2.592358 3.359148 4.812467 9.427393
2025-07-20 1.578763 1.824334 2.153591 2.664559 3.539036 5.338389 12.874321
2025-07-27 1.550650 1.799073 2.135629 2.666208 3.599366 5.632074 16.541363
2025-08-03 1.524875 1.775820 2.119121 2.668506 3.660834 5.953152 23.273214
2025-08-10 1.483303 1.729409 2.067107 2.610065 3.599128 5.928558 26.277129
2025-08-17 1.457941 1.704534 2.045347 2.599533 3.630133 6.178613 43.185196
2025-08-24 1.432643 1.678875 2.021281 2.583482 3.648061 6.400392 116.874710
2025-08-31 1.407580 1.652753 1.995457 2.562816 3.654108 6.590900 NaN
2025-09-07 1.395806 1.644768 1.996060 2.586530 3.756110 7.163985 NaN
2025-09-14 1.357996 1.599069 1.938584 2.507505 3.627635 6.837075 NaN
2025-09-21 1.340469 1.581702 1.923312 2.500882 3.658195 7.143335 NaN
2025-09-28 1.312154 1.548387 1.882971 2.448816 3.583237 7.004725 NaN
2025-10-05 1.307053 1.547927 1.892376 2.484184 3.708982 7.777698 NaN